emini ES analysis 8th March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Overnight on Tuesday there was a decline and twice ES briefly tested 2686, the 3month Support, which held. Note that the last three Value Areas have been printed above 2704 (1/2R) and overnight ES has printed above 2718.00, the 1mn poc. These are the minor positives but ES needs to hold 2686 (3mn) to remain in a strong price location in the LT – as I have written before, price acceptance below that level and be a warning of further weakness.
Minor Support/Resistance = 2718.00 (1mn)
Support 1 = 2686.00 (3mn) Support 2 = 2581.00 (6mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36% (from 35%), Nasdaq 53% (from 50%), R2000 48% (from 44%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 18.19. The Ratio fell to 10.94 on 02/15, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level since then. Bond Sentiment is very bearish at the moment which may set up a contrarian bullish stance but risk of further declines remains high if TLT is below 119.00.
Dollar Index: 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: The 2mn poc is at 126.60. Price probed that level on Tuesday but has not exceeded it. Price printing time above that Resistance would be a bullish indication.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc but last week a probe above 12.78, the 3mn poc was rejected.
GBPUSD: The 2mn poc is at 1.3955, and currently the chart prints just below that level.
EURUSD: broke back above 1.2264, the 2mn poc, on Friday. Strong price location if it holds that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and on Friday printed its lowest level since Nov 2016.
