emini future ES 14th January 2020
Early last week Buyers kept auctioning emini futures ES back above the 3228 poc, as I wrote “this is encouraging”, see Wednesday’s highlighted comments. Last four VAs have been generated above the minor VAH at 3240 which is also a positive. On Monday Aggressive Buying (green) was marked. First sign of technical weakness would now be a day-session close below 3268.0, the low of that Buying day (dashed line).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65% (from 61%), Nasdaq 66% (from 63%), R2000 59% (from 53%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 24.18. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Monday. Price above the poc would be a stronger location.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price is currently above that level.
Gold: last week GLD probed above 146.50, the major VAH, and printed its highest level since 2013. Acceptance (time) at or above this level would be a further positive but as we know, rejections are common at VAH’s. There is major Support now at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high.
Oil: Last week USO printed its highest level since April but is now printing back below 12.73 (1/2R off 2018 high).
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc again this week. Price above that level would be a stronger location but that probe has been rejected so far.
