emini futures Tuesday 11th September 2018
w/e 24th Aug SPY broke above the January high and has so far held that level. Significant Selling has not been marked for 29 days.
See last Wednesday’s highlighted comments. Price did probe above 2900 and that level has been rejected with price printing lower from there. There were six consecutive lower Value Areas since the high day and that is highly unusual. Not surprisingly Monday’s session printed a VA above Friday’s. Overnight ES sagged and pre-open price is printing close to 2870.
Since the high day Significant Sellers have not been marked and the minor poc at 2858.50 has not yet been tested so although the market has come lower there is no clear sign of weakness until we see the Sellers (red) being marked and ES printing time below 2858.50. The Pulse Chart now shows neutral breadth but price momentum is holding up but there is an ongoing (but unconfirmed) negative divergence between price itself and the indicator. One other indicator to note is the Rydex ratio, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 52% (from 51%), Nasdaq 51% (unch), R2000 54% (from 53%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 27.55 on Thursday which equals the highest ratio in the database. Ratio is now at 26.75 – down only a little as the market has declined. Not usually a bullish pattern in the ST.
Bonds: TLT – A sharp decline for TLT early last week leaves the chart below 121.00, the major poc, in a weakened price location.
Dollar Index: The major poc is at 94.80. Late August the chart tested that Support but has held.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position.
Oil: USO – As long as chart holds above 12.79, the 12mn Support it is in a LT strong price location.
GBPUSD: The major poc is at 1.3200 and there was a rejected probe into that level in late July. Chart remains in a weak LT price location below that level.
EURUSD: On 08/15 the chart printed its lowest level since July 2017. There was a strong rally back from there but it did not see EURUSD above 1.1755, the 1year poc Resistance. If the chart is printing below that level it remains in a weak LT position.
USDJPY: the major poc is now at 111.30 and chart is currently printing very close to that level.
