emini futures 14th November 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
On Monday ES broke below 2761.50 early in the session (see Monday’s highlighted comments) and then sold-off. On Tuesday the major Support at 2718 was reached. Pre-open today ES is printing above that level and it is important now that ES holds this Support. A higher low at a major poc can be a bullish pattern but if ES breaks below that level it will be back in a weak LT position. Prudent Bulls would wait for Significant Buying (green) to be marked above 2718.
Maj ETF Levels: SPY 271.7 Support (tested on Tuesday), IWM 153.5 Resistance
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 32% (from 30%), Nasdaq 26% (unch), R2000 28% (from 26%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 10.93. Through Tuesday’s close the market’s down 2% this week but the Ratio is higher. Historically that’s not been a ST bullish pattern and is a little concerning. On 11/05 the ratio fell to 8.15 which was the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – declined sharply since breaking below 121.00, the major poc, at the start of September. 11/02 broke lower and printed its lowest level since Jul 2014. Has bounced from there.
Dollar Index: On Monday DXY printed its highest level since June 2017. The major poc is at 94.80 and chart printed a higher low at that Support earlier in the month – it remains in a strong price location above that level.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position. It is possible the poc could migrate lower with time – I am monitoring that.
Oil: USO – Broke below 12.79, the 12mn poc, on Friday. Declined further from there. Chart looks set to test the Major Poc Support at 11.41.
GBPUSD: remains in a weak LT location below 1.3200, the major poc. On Monday broke below 1.2978, the minor 1/2R off the August low but has retraced back to that level.
EURUSD: On Monday printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Chart remains in a weak LT price location if it prints below 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2016 low.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level and looks to have formed a higher low at that poc.
