emini futures 16th November 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
An overlapping/higher Value Area was generated on Thursday and ES attempted to print time above 2718 (the Maj poc) late in the session. Pre-open today chart is back below that level. It is encouraging to see the NAAIM Index fall to its lowest reading since February 2016, but other Sentiment Indicators have not shown much sign of capitulation with this recent sell-off. That’s a concern. In any event, I would want to see Significant Buying (green) marked above 2718 before looking at the long side.
ETFs Maj POC Levels: SPY 271.7, IWM 153.5
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 33% (from 30%), Nasdaq 28% (from 23%), R2000 29% (from 25%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 12.38. This week the market is lower but the Ratio is higher. Historically that’s not been a ST bullish pattern and is a little concerning. On 11/05 the ratio fell to 8.15 which was the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – declined sharply since breaking below 121.00, the major poc, at the start of September. 11/02 broke lower and printed its lowest level since Jul 2014. Has bounced from there.
Dollar Index: On Monday DXY printed its highest level since June 2017. The major poc is at 94.80 and chart printed a higher low at that Support earlier in the month – it remains in a strong LT price location above that level.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position. It is possible the poc could migrate lower with time – I am monitoring that.
Oil: USO – Broke below 12.79, the 12mn poc, last week. Declined further from there. Chart looks set to test the Major Poc Support at 11.41.
GBPUSD: remains in a weak LT location below 1.3200, the major poc.
EURUSD: On Monday printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Chart remains in a weak LT price location if it prints below 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2016 low.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level and looks to have formed a higher low at that poc.
