emini futures 17th October 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The major Support at 2718.00 has held so far. On Friday and Monday ES printed up to probe the 2774.00 Resistance (now Support). Tuesday’s session opened almost at that level and then immediately rallied with the entire Valuye Area printed above that poc and Aggressive Buying (green) being marked. This is the first minor sign of strength. The Pulse Chart is still negative so let’s not assume too much. The next test for ES is the 1/2R off the September high at 2829.50 (dashed line). Always watch the 1/2R from important highs to subsequent lows. If ES can print some time above 2829.50 it would be in a stronger position – I remain cautious until then. The equivalent level for SPY is 282.15.
minor Support = 2774.00 (4mn poc)
major Support = 2718.00
ETFs: SPY and IWM also held their major Support last week following brief tests; SPY = 271.7, IWM = 153.5.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 26% (from 18%), Nasdaq 24% (from 15%), R2000 21% (from 13%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 17.05. Last Thursday’s ratio at 14.93. was the lowest since early May. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – declined sharply through since breaking below 121.00, the major poc, at the start of September. Reached its lowest level since Sep 2014, last week. Has bounced back a little.
Dollar Index: The major poc is at 94.80. The chart had been oscillating around that level for three months. Is currently printing above the poc (just) in a stronger price location.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position but rallied last week. It is possible the poc could migrated lower with time – I am monitoring that.
Oil: USO – As long as chart holds above 12.79, the 12mn Support, it is in a LT strong price location – I have been saying this for months now. If USO should retrace we need to watch for that poc migrating higher. 10/03 the chart reached its highest level since October 2015.
GBPUSD: The major poc is at 1.3200. On 09/20 that Resistance was probed and rejected and it has been probed, but not exceeded, over the last few days.
EURUSD: On 08/15 the chart printed its lowest level since July 2017. There was a rally back from there to probe 1.1755, the 1year poc Resistance. This was rejected.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level but has fallen back over last few days.
