emini futures 20th December 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Once again the pattern of weakness into the session close continued on Wednesday. An outside/overlapping Value Area was generated but ES printed a new low for this down trend below 2500. As I have been writing recently, Only the Sentiment data, which is at/reaching bearish extremes and the December seasonal pattern offer a ray of hope but with weak price location and a negative Pulse Chart I remain wary of the long side. At a minimum I would want to see Effective Buying (green) being marked before assuming higher on even the dayframe.
ETFs Maj POC levels: SPY 271.7, IWM 153.5
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 13% (from 15%), Nasdaq 12% (from 14%), R2000 12% (from 14%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 8.36. Up fromTuesday’s 7.86 which was the lowest ratio since Sep 2017 when it fell to 7.5. If the ratio falls below 7.5 it will be the lowest since Dec 2016.
Bonds: TLT – On Wednesday printed its highest level since August and probed the important Resistance at 121.00, the major poc.
Dollar Index: has printed a 22day low today but remains above 94.80, the major poc in a strong LT price location.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and the chart remains in a LT weak position below that level although on Wednesday GLD printed its highest level since July.
Oil: USO – on 12/07 chart found Resistance at 11.41, the Major Poc and is lower from there. This week has fallen sharply to print its lowest level since Sep ’17. This is an important chart. Equity Bulls as well would want to see a recovery back above 11.41.
GBPUSD: last week fell to its lowest level since April 2017. Has bounced from there but remains in a LT weak position.
EURUSD: 11/12 printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Has bounced from there and has today probed 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2017 low. Chart is printing above that level.
