emini futures 21st March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The 7month poc (controlling price) just migrated to 2725.00. As we know the migration of an important poc will often occur just before a new directional move begins so it is now important to monitor price relative to that level. Significant Selling (red) marked below the poc would be an indication of further weakness. Bulls would want to see ES hold 2725.00. Note that the VAH at 2760 is no longer valid.
Minor Resistance = 2757.50 (19day)
Major Support/Resistance = 2725.00 (7mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 38% (from 37%), Nasdaq 53% (from 54%), R2000 50% (from 52%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 21.0. Down from 22.81 on Monday, the highest since early February – there are only six readings higher than this in the database. As I wrote yesterday “a higher ratio on a notable down day is not usually an encouraging pattern in the short-term”. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc, and had been printing below that level since then – until last week. Time printed above 119 would be a positive. On Tuesday TLT closed at 118.95.
Dollar Index: Since 02/21 the index has been consolidating above 89.59, the 3mn poc, which is a minor sign of strength. If that level is broken there is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: closed on Tuesday below 125.23, the 4mn poc.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, and this week has been printing above 12.30, the 4mn poc.
GBPUSD: The 5mn poc is now at 1.3965 and the chart is currently printing above that level in a strong price location.
EURUSD: the 3mn poc is now at 1.2409, and chart currently prints below that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Last month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and 03/02 printed its lowest level since Nov 2016.
