emini futures 24th December 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
On Friday ES printed a new low for this down trend and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked again. As I have been writing recently, >>only the Sentiment data, which is at/reaching bearish extremes and the December seasonal pattern offer a ray of hope but with weak price location and a negative Pulse Chart I remain wary of the long side<<. At a minimum I would want to see Effective Buying (green) being marked before assuming higher on even the dayframe.
On Friday the S&P500 fell to its lowest level since July 2017.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 9%, Nasdaq 7%, R2000 8%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.75, a two year low. Down from 27.5 in early September. Bear fund assets that I follow spiked to their highest level since July 2016.
Bonds: TLT – On Thursday printed its highest level since August and probed above the important Resistance at 121.00, the major poc. Time spent above this level would put TLT in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: printed a 22day low on Thursday but remains above 94.80, the major poc, in a strong LT price location.
Gold: GLD – on Thursday GLD printed its highest level since June. There is Resistance at 121.00, the major poc.
Oil: USO – on 12/07 chart found Resistance at 11.41, the Major Poc and is lower from there. Has fallen sharply to print its lowest level since Sep ’17. This is an important chart. Equity Bulls as well would want to see a recovery back above 11.41.
GBPUSD: last week fell to its lowest level since April 2017. Has bounced from there but remains in a LT weak position.
EURUSD: 11/12 printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Bounced from there and last week probed Resistance at 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2017 low.
