Tuesday 25th September 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
from Friday’s comments (highlighted) >>In a strong market the low of a Buying day will usually hold. First sign of (dayframe) weakness: A rejected probe above 2950 and a break of that low (2926).<<
ES never quite probed the 2950 level but Thursday’s low was tested on Tuesday. ES has now filled the day-session gap between Wed/Thu. Any ST positive implications of Thursday’s green-at-top high are negated. Any Significant Selling (red) marked above 2893 (minor poc) would only be Reactive in the LT and as long as ES is printing above that First Level Support, it is in a strong position in the LT.
First Level Support: 2893 (minor poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51% (from 59%), Nasdaq 45% (from 49%), R2000 45% (from 51%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 17.94, a 21day low. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded ten days ago which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – has declined sharply over the last three weeks, (following its break below 121.00, the major poc). Last week it also broke below 118.50 (6mn poc) and came very close to testing the May low.
Dollar Index: The major poc is at 94.80 and the chart is printing below that level in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position.
Oil: USO – As long as chart holds above 12.79, the 12mn Support, it is in a LT strong price location. On Monday reached its highest level since November 2015.
GBPUSD: The major poc is at 1.3200. Last week that Resistance was probed and rejected with chart falling sharply on Friday.
EURUSD: On 08/15 the chart printed its lowest level since July 2017. There has been a rally back from there and last week the chart again probed above 1.1755, the 1year poc Resistance. Time printed above that level would put the chart in a stronger position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30 and chart is currently printing above that level.
