emini futures 27th November 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Overnight ES printed above 2680 but quickly fell back from that level. Pre-open it is printing back below 2660. If ES prints below 2718, the major poc, it is in a LT weak position and I remain cautious but it is interesting that very little time has been spent below 2634…from last week >>the 12mn VAL has moved to 2634 (dashed line). ..Bulls would want to see another rejection here and a rally – price acceptance (time) at or below this level would be a negative, it would suggest a new distribution (down) has begun.<< see previous comments.
ETFs Maj POC Resistance: SPY 271.7, IWM 153.5
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 34% (from 29%), Nasdaq 29% (from 26%), R2000 31% (from 29%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 11.86 (from 12.45). I wrote yesterday “If the market manages to rally I’d really like to see this ratio fall”. On 11/05 the ratio fell to 8.15 which was the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – declined sharply since breaking below 121.00, the major poc, at the start of September. 11/02 broke lower and subsequently printed its lowest level since Jul 2014. Has bounced from there.
Dollar Index: 11/12 DXY printed its highest level since June 2017. The major poc is at 94.80 and chart printed a higher low at that Support earlier in the month – it remains in a strong LT price location above that level.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position. It is possible the poc could migrate lower with time – I am monitoring that. There is minor Resistance at 116.0, the 11mn poc, and this was probed (but not exceeded) last week.
Oil: USO – Broke below 12.79, the 12mn poc, earlier in the month and at the end of last week broke below 11.41, the Major Poc. Bulls would want to see that level recovered quickly.
GBPUSD: remains in a weak LT location below 1.3200, the major poc.
EURUSD: 11/12 printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Chart remains in a weak price location if it prints below 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2017 low.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level and looks to have formed a higher low at that poc.
