emini futures 31st October 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The last three Value Areas have been generated entirely below 2718, the major poc, and indicate a weak price location. Price printing time back above that level would be a positive. Until that happens I remain cautious. However, Monday’s session low was a test of the 12month Value Area low at 2605 (dashed line). If this is a correction in an ongoing bull market I would expect a test of a major VAL to be rejected, i.e. the market rallies. If price is accepted (time) close to this level I would take that as a negative. Pre-open ES has rallied further and is approaching the major Resistance at 2718.00.
ETFs: Major Levels. SPY = 271.7, IWM = 153.5.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 19% (from 15%), Nasdaq 16% (from 12%), R2000 16% (from 12%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 13.11. That’s up from the previous Monday’s ratio which was 8.68 and the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – declined sharply since breaking below 121.00, the major poc, at the start of September. Reached its lowest level since Sep 2014, earlier this month.
Dollar Index: Has tpday printed its highest level since June 2017. The major poc is at 94.80 and chart printed a higher low at that Support earlier in the month.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position but has rallied recently. It is possible the poc could migrate lower with time – I am monitoring that.
Oil: USO – As long as chart holds above 12.79, the 12mn Support, it is in a LT strong price location. USO has retraced from the 10/03 high and we need to watch for that poc migrating higher.
GBPUSD: The major poc is at 1.3200. On 09/20 that Resistance was probed and rejected and it was probed, but not exceeded, again earlier this month. On Tuesday printed its lowest level since mid-August.
EURUSD: On 08/15 the chart printed its lowest level since July 2017. There was a rally back from there to probe 1.1755, the 1year poc Resistance. This was rejected and the chart is approaching the August low.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level and may be forming a higher low at that poc.
