emini futures 5th March 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
In Monday’s session an early test above last week’s high was quickly rejected and ES sold off sharply to test the First Level Support at 2777 (20dy poc). ES needs to hold this level to maintain a strong price location in the ST. Price printing time below that minor poc would suggest a test of the major at 2718. Pre-open today ES is printing above 2790.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 82% (from 84%), Nasdaq 80% (from 81%), R2000 80% (from 82%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 18.0. Down from 18.46, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: Last week TLT broke below 121.0, the major poc. This is a weak position. There is 1/2R Support at 119.9 (off November low).
Dollar Index: as long as DXY prints above 94.80, the major poc, it is in a strong LT price location. In the ST, chart is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) and this is First Level Support.
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD has fallen sharply since then and is approaching the 121 Support.
Oil: USO – has been printing above 11.41, the Major Poc. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: in December the chart bounced from a second test of 1.2481 (30mn poc) and has rallied. Two weeks ago the major poc (measured on a 30minute basis) migrated lower to 1.2930. Since then the chart has been printing above that level in a stronger LT position and has printed its highest level since July. Has retraced from there.
EURUSD: the Maj Support is at 1.131 (maj poc). EURUSD needs to hold this Support to remain in a strong location.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart is rallying back towards that Resistance.
