emini futures 8th November 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Recap: The market has rallied strongly since testing the 12mn VAL (2605) on 10/30, see highlighted comments. This week we have seen Value Areas generated above the major poc at 2718 (indication of Strength) and Aggressive Buying (green) being marked.
During Wednesday’s session ES probed above 2806 (dashed line), the 12mn Value Area High (VAH). Price Acceptance (time) around this level would be a further positive but the negative developments would be: a fast rejection of that level and a subsequent break below 2774 which is Wednesday’s green day low (this rarely happens in a strong market).
ETFs: Major Levels (now Support) SPY = 271.7, IWM = 153.5.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41% (from 32%), Nasdaq 36% (from 29%), R2000 35% (from 28%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost at 9.93. Up from Monday’s 8.15, the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – declined sharply since breaking below 121.00, the major poc, at the start of September. Last Friday, broke lower and printed its lowest level since Jul 2014.
Dollar Index: Midweek, last week, DXY probed above the August high (its highest level since June 2017). This was rejected and DXY fell sharply. The major poc is at 94.80 and chart printed a higher low at that Support earlier in the month. Printed a twelve day low on Wednesday.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position but has rallied recently. It is possible the poc could migrate lower with time – I am monitoring that.
Oil: USO – As long as chart holds above 12.79, the 12mn Support, it is in a LT strong price location. We need to watch for that poc migrating higher. USO has retraced from the 10/03 high and on Wednesday printed its lowest level since June.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly over the last few days but is still in a weak LT location. There is minor Support at 1.2978, the minor 1/2R off the August low, and major Resistance at 1.3200, the major poc.
EURUSD: On 08/15 the chart printed its lowest level since July 2017. There was a rally back from there to probe 1.1755, the 1year poc Resistance. This was rejected and the chart declined from there to approach the August low. Chart remains in a weak LT price location.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level and looks to have formed a higher low at that poc.
