emini S&P 500 14th February 2020 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Comment unchanged. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Monday. The first sign of minor weakness would now be a day-session close below 3323 (dashed line), the low of that Buying day. The minor (6wk) poc Support is 3324.5 which is close. Time below that level would indicate a test of 3249.0, the 4mn poc. First sign of LT weakness would be Effective Selling marked below that poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53% (from 55%), Nasdaq 53% (from 54%), R2000 49% (from 48%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio higher at 25.44. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 1/2R Support off August high, is at 141.69. Recent price action indicates that a higher low above that level may be forming.
Dollar Index: is printing above 98.0, the 1/2R Resistance off Oct high, in a strong position.
Gold: GLD closed on 01/31 at its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below 11.41, the major poc in a weak position.
GBPUSD: This week the major poc has migrated lower, back to 1.2933 (from 1.3128). Price below that level would be a weak position. GBPUSD is currently printing up from that Support.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and broke the Support at 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Has now broken below that low and has today printed its lowest level since May 2017.
Dollar Index: is printing above 98.0, the 1/2R Resistance off Oct high, in a strong position.
Gold: GLD closed on 01/31 at its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below 11.41, the major poc in a weak position.
GBPUSD: This week the major poc has migrated lower, back to 1.2933 (from 1.3128). Price below that level would be a weak position. GBPUSD is currently printing up from that Support.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and broke the Support at 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Has now broken below that low and has today printed its lowest level since May 2017.
