Emini SP500 18th December 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Note: we are now following the March contract.
See previous, highlighted, comments. ES/SPY printed a new low on Monday (since the September high). Aggressive Selling was marked again and these red-at-bottom lows are retested 80% of the time within two days. Only the Sentiment data, which is at/reaching bearish extremes and the December seasonal pattern offer a ray of hope but with weak price location and a negative Pulse Chart I remain wary of the long side. Pre-open today ES (Mar) has bounced back above 2570.
ETFs Maj POC levels: SPY 271.7, IWM 153.5
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 15% (from 22%), Nasdaq 14% (from 19%), R2000 14% (from 20%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 8.79. On 11/05 the ratio fell to 8.15 which was the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – is printing above 118.50, the First Level Resistance which is a stronger price location. There is more important Resistance at 121.00, the major poc.
Dollar Index: last week DXY printed its highest level since June 2017. The major poc is at 94.80 and DXY remains in a strong LT price location above that level.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and the chart remains in a LT weak position below that level although GLD has recently printed its highest level since July.
Oil: USO – on 12/07 chart found Resistance at 11.41, the Major Poc and is lower from there. On Monday printed its lowest level since Oct ’17. This is an important chart. Equity Bulls as well would want to see a recovery back above 11.41.
GBPUSD: last week fell to its lowest level since April 2017. Has bounced from there but remains in a LT weak position.
EURUSD: 11/12 printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Has bounced but remains in a weak price location if it prints below 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2017 low.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level.
