Emini SP500 19th December 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES opened Tuesday’s day session higher but later fell back to re-test Monday’s red-at-low bottom. As I mentioned pre-open yesterday >>these red-at-bottom lows are retested 80% of the time within two days<< see previous highlighted comments. Only the Sentiment data, which is at/reaching bearish extremes and the December seasonal pattern offer a ray of hope but with weak price location and a negative Pulse Chart I remain wary of the long side. Pre-open today ES (Mar) has bounced back above 2550.
ETFs Maj POC levels: SPY 271.7, IWM 153.5
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 15% (unch), Nasdaq 14% (unch), R2000 14% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 7.86. This is the lowest ratio since Sep 2017 when it fell to 7.5. If the ratio falls below 7.5 today it will be the lowest since Dec 2016. Bear fund assets have spiked in the last two days to their highest level since Oct 2016.
Bonds: TLT – is printing above 118.50, the First Level Resistance, in a stronger price location. On Tuesday printed its highest level since September. There is more important Resistance at 121.00, the major poc.
Dollar Index: last week DXY printed its highest level since June 2017. The major poc is at 94.80 and DXY remains in a strong LT price location above that level.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and the chart remains in a LT weak position below that level although GLD has recently printed its highest level since July.
Oil: USO – on 12/07 chart found Resistance at 11.41, the Major Poc and is lower from there. This week has fallen sharply to print its lowest level since Sep ’17. This is an important chart. Equity Bulls as well would want to see a recovery back above 11.41.
GBPUSD: last week fell to its lowest level since April 2017. Has bounced from there but remains in a LT weak position.
EURUSD: 11/12 printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Has bounced but remains in a weak price location if it prints below 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2017 low.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level.
