The emini SP500 today, 23rd June, has rallied above 2100 pre-open.
Wednesday generated an overlapping, higher Value Area. Weakness in the latter part of the session saw ES briefly test the minor Support at 2078, see yesterday’s comments. The minor Support mentioned above migrated higher to 2082 but more importantly the major poc is at 2087. We have the big risk event today, namely the UK European Referendum vote and markets are likely to respond strongly to the result but post the event if ES can hold above 2087 it is in a strong price location.
First Level Support = 2087.00 (maj poc)
Second Level Support = 2041.00 (poc of current distribution)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56% (from 59%), Nasdaq 49% (from 51%), R2000 54% (from 57%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.52 (from 4.27). On 04/26 the ratio reached 5.27 which was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts: there is a big risk event this week. Please kepp this in mind reviewing the technical comments below.
Bonds: Last week TLT printed above its January high but found no further buying and this now looks like a rejected test. Futures indicate a lower open today.
Dollar Index: currently printing below 93.95, the 1/2R off the May low in a weak price location.
Gold: last week GLD attempted to break out above the April high and briefly printed its highest level since August 2014. This also look like a rejected test with Gold lower. Cash indicates a lower open today.
Oil: 06/09 USO printed its highest level since November and remains in an LT uptrend as long as it holds above 10.78.
EURUSD: is today printing back above 1.1313, the 4yr poc, in a stronger price location. There is further Support just below 1.11 which is the 1/2R off last year’s low. Price below that level would be weak location.
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