ES emini 17th December 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Note: we are now following the March contract.
ST: The March contract in isolation shows poc Support at 3148.50. As long as ES holds that level it is in a strong position.
LT: Following Aggressive Selling on 9th December I wrote that a “session close above Monday’s high, 3149.50, would negate any ST negative implications of that red-at-bottom low”, see highlighted comments. On Thursday we saw a session close above that high.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71% (from 68%), Nasdaq 68% (unch), R2000 69% (from 66%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 21.32. On Friday the ratio reached 24.4. the highest since Sep ’18. The highest reading I have is 27.5 in Jan ’18.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Monday. Weak position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) has been probed this week but DXY currently prints above that level. Price below that level would be a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO is now printing above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, and is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and has been printing above the 1.3130 major poc which is now important Support. That Support has been tested today.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and on Friday probed the poc Resistance at 1.120.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) has been probed this week but DXY currently prints above that level. Price below that level would be a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO is now printing above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, and is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and has been printing above the 1.3130 major poc which is now important Support. That Support has been tested today.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and on Friday probed the poc Resistance at 1.120.
