ES emini 29th November 2019 – pre-open
Earlier in November, the 1month poc migrated to 3083 (now First Level LT Support). ES found Support at that level and rallied strongly.
Dayframe: Aggressive Buying was marked again on Wednesday, for the third consecutive day. That’s rare. The session low of Wednesday’s Buying Day is 3142.25, dotted line. First Sign of weakness in the ST would be a session close below that level, indicating that Buyers had been disrupted.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67% (from 64%), Nasdaq 68% (from 67%), R2000 68% (from 66%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 18.93. This year’s high was at 24.14 in July. On 14th Oct the ratio fell to 6.50, the lowest since January.
Bonds – TLT: is printing below 142.50, the 4mn poc Resistance in a weak LT location. There is closer Resistance at 141.67, the 1/2R off Aug high.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and has rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and is printing just above that level today.New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: last week USO declined to test 11.66, the 2yr poc, but rallied from there to print back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, in a strong position.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. Has probed 1.2914, the 1/2R Resistance off 2016 low but has not printed significant time above that level.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there but has given back more than half the gain from that low.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and has rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and is printing just above that level today.New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: last week USO declined to test 11.66, the 2yr poc, but rallied from there to print back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, in a strong position.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. Has probed 1.2914, the 1/2R Resistance off 2016 low but has not printed significant time above that level.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there but has given back more than half the gain from that low.
