ES emini 7th January 2020 – pre-open from ChartProfit
I posed the question on Friday “will Significant Sellers step in here and take control below 3228, the 6wk poc, or can Buyers auction ES back above that level (now Resistance)?” – see highlighted comments.
You can see from the chart that on Friday, and again on Monday, early weakness saw Buyers quickly auction ES back above the poc. This is encouraging. First sign of technical weakness would be a Value Area generated below that poc, 3228.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66% (from 67%), Nasdaq 67% (from 68%), R2000 60% (from 62%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 23.25. On 12/27 the ratio reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Monday. Price above the poc would be a stronger location.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price below that level, like now, is a weak location.
Gold: closed above 146.50, the major VAH, at its highest level since 2013. Acceptance (time) at or above this level would be a further positive. There is major Support now at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high.
Oil: On Monday USO printed its highest level since April. Is now printing above 12.73, the 1/2R off 2018 high, and is in a LT strong location if that level (now Support) is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc again this week. Price above that level would be a stronger location.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price below that level, like now, is a weak location.
Gold: closed above 146.50, the major VAH, at its highest level since 2013. Acceptance (time) at or above this level would be a further positive. There is major Support now at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high.
Oil: On Monday USO printed its highest level since April. Is now printing above 12.73, the 1/2R off 2018 high, and is in a LT strong location if that level (now Support) is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc again this week. Price above that level would be a stronger location.
