ES emini 8th January 2020 – pre-open from ChartProfit
I posed the question on Friday “will Significant Sellers step in here and take control below 3228, the 6wk poc, or can Buyers auction ES back above that level (now Resistance)?” – see highlighted comments.
Last three days Value Areas have been generated almost entirely above 3228 and three times ES has tested below that level and been quickly auctioned back. This happened again overnight when ES dipped briefly down to 3181. From a technical pov this is encouraging. First sign of technical weakness would be a Value Area generated below that poc, 3228.
You will also notice that little time is being spent above 3240, see the VAHs of last three sessions. Acceptance (time) above that level would be a positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62% (from 66%), Nasdaq 63% (from 67%), R2000 55% (from 60%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 25.82. On 12/27 the ratio reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Tuesday. Price above the poc would be a stronger location.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price below that level, is a weak location.
Gold: closed above 146.50, the major VAH, at its highest level since 2013. Acceptance (time) at or above this level would be a further positive. There is major Support now at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high.
Oil: On Monday USO printed its highest level since April. Is now printing above 12.73, the 1/2R off 2018 high, and is in a LT strong location if that level (now Support) is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc again this week. Price above that level would be a stronger location but that probe has been rejected so far.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price below that level, is a weak location.
Gold: closed above 146.50, the major VAH, at its highest level since 2013. Acceptance (time) at or above this level would be a further positive. There is major Support now at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high.
Oil: On Monday USO printed its highest level since April. Is now printing above 12.73, the 1/2R off 2018 high, and is in a LT strong location if that level (now Support) is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc again this week. Price above that level would be a stronger location but that probe has been rejected so far.
