Market Report 12th September 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES analysis: We’ve seen a long period of low volatility in the market and this was broken with Friday’s sharp sell-off. The session opened well below 2180.50, the 4mn poc (see Friday’s pre-open comments) and immediately sold off. Aggressive Selling was marked and with a lower, wider Value Area this was “Effective” Selling. There is Support at 2087.00, the major poc but I need to see Effective Buying being marked, either off that Support or above 2180.50, before considering new longs.
First Level Resistance = 2180.50 (4mn poc)
Major poc Support = 2087.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (from 64%), Nasdaq 52% (from 69%), R2000 50% (from 70%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 7.06. The ratio reached 7.9 on 08/26, a seven month high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – since the beginning of August four probes into 140.34 Resistance (the 1/2R off the July high) had failed and on Friday TLT sold off sharply to a new low since the July high.
Dollar Index: last week tested the Support at 94.76 (2yr poc) and has so far held. Price below that level would immediately put UDX in a weak position.
Gold: GLD rallied back last week but did not manage to close on Friday above 127.85 (1/2R off July high). That would be a positive. The major poc Support is at 118.22 (maj poc) – there is a possibility that poc could migrate higher – I am watching for that.
Oil: USO – rallied back last week but did not manage to close on Friday above 10.78, the 18mn poc. That would be a positive. There is Support at 10.07, the 1/2R off this year’s low and this held a test recently. Price printing time below this level would indicate further weakness.
EURUSD: recently found Support at 1.1139, the 4yr poc and currently the chart is printing above that level. There is also Support lower at 1.1083, 1/2R of last year’s low.
click to enlarge graphic
