Market Report 26th September 2016 – Pre-open from Chartprofit
ES analysis: Friday’s session generated a lower Value Area and strictly applying my rules I had to mark Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom). In the longer timeframe this is Reactive Selling because it took place above 2135.00, the minor (13day) poc. Significant Selling (red) marked below that level would be more of a concern. Overnight (and as of 3 hours pre-open) ES has printed as low as 2144.25.
ETFs: SPY, Momentum (PriceOsc) is ticking up (although still negative) – same for IWM and DIA.
First Level Support = 2142.25 (1/2R off August high, Dec contract)
Major poc Support = 2087.00
Market Charts: All major market charts are positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 61%, UK 73%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.82. The ratio reached 7.9 on 08/26, a seven month high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – following the weak pattern in August (see previous analysis) the chart fell sharply. Last week saw a rally but TLT remains in a weak price location below138.33, the 1/2R Resistance off the June high.
Dollar Index: The 1/2R off Dec high Resistance is at 96.21. This was probed and rejected last week. Price above that level would put the chart in a stronger position. Support lower at 94.76 (2yr poc).
Gold: GLD rallied last week but still prints below 127.85 (1/2R off July high). Price above that level would put the chart in a stronger position. The major poc Support is at 118.22 (maj poc).
Oil: USO – closed above 10.06 (1/2R off Feb low) on Friday. Resistance at 10.78, the 18mn poc. Price above that level would be a positive.
EURUSD: in August found Support at 1.1139, the 4yr poc and the chart is again printing up off that level in a strong price location.
click graphic to enlarge
