Markets today 12th December 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit.
See previous, highlighted, comments. ES found Support early last week at 2200, the 5week poc, see chart, and held that strong price location with all Value Areas last week printed above that level. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Technically the market is overbought (14day RSI for SPY at 76.9 and IWM at 78.8 are extremely high) but as long as chart holds above 2200 it is in a strong price location.
First Level Support = 2200 (5week poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Market Charts: All major Market charts are positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78%, Nasdaq 74%, R2000 84%, UK 54% Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.30. The ratio fell from 8.48 (an 11 month high) on Monday to a 97 day low on Thursday. That kind of fall in the ratio nearly always happens after the market has been falling sharply and tends to mark a capitulation point . In this case the market is strongly higher. Some unusual Sentiment here. Pre-open Tuesday I wrote “The ratio at an 11 month high is always worth noting as a warning but it seems that Bear fund assets AND Bull fund assets both fell sharply yesterday and that’s rare. Bull fund assets falling 19% in one day would usually be a positive.”
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – on Friday the chart closed at 117.50, its lowest level since July 2015. The major poc Support is a little lower at 117.15.
Dollar Index: 11/24 chart reached its highest level since April 2003. Is today printing just 1% below that level.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. Chart closed on Friday at its lowest level since early February.
Oil: USO – since start of December chart has been printing above 10.78, the maj poc in a strong price location. Today oil futures have spiked to their highest level since June 2015.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then.
click to enlarge graphic
