posted 06.26 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 14th January
Friday generated a higher, narrower Value Area on less Volume. Significant Sellers have not been marked for nine days.
Although the market is overbought both the LT and ST analysis is supportive. First indication of weakness would be Significant Sellers marked below ES 1453.
First Level Support = 1453 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System is positive for all Major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 88% and Nasdaq 80%. UK 87%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually consideed overbought.
Sentiment: Sentiment shows extreme complacency, not quite extreme optimism, but bullishness is rapidly increasing. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.40. Wednesday’s 4.44 was a 60day high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
Unlike Equity Index/ETF charts, the following KEY Charts are printing very close to useful reference levels. Monitoring price relative to these levels should give us a good idea about the markets current appetite for risk; mixed at the moment but will hopefully give better indication soon.
– Bonds TLT: Seems to have found Support just above the major poc (117.15). Closed at an eight day high on Friday and momentum has turned up.
? Commodities: Oil USO Rallied to important 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17 eight days ago but has not overcome this level. Price printing above this level would indicate further strength and “risk on”. Gold GLD finished the week “at” the 161 major poc.
+ Dollar Index: Finished the week in a weak price location below the 2yrpoc at 79.80.
+ EURUSD: Chart finished the week back above 1.3117, the 24mn poc. This is strong price location and a positive for equities but today chart is approaching the next Resistance at 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low.
