posted 9.04 a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 10th April
Monday generated a Value Area entirely below the 1395 poc. Although Significant Sellers have yet to be marked below that level this activity is an indication of weakness. I am not interested in new longs if ES prints below 1395. Significant Selling marked below 1395 would strongly indicate further weakness to come.
Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for Nasdaq but turned neutral for Nyse. The %Stocks>50dyma number for both Nyse and Nasdaq fell below 40 on Monday for the first time in a good while – in the ST this usually indicates further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 1395 (30dy poc)
First Level Support = 1366 (45 dy poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down at 4.73 on Monday but last Tuesday’s ratio at 5.64 is the highest ratio in my database. As I wrote last week “This is concerning as historically this ratio hitting new highs is a real warning for the market and suggests upside is limited at least”.
Developments: Note that DIA has broken below its 4mnth poc at 129.58 and IWM below its maj poc at 82.53.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart fell last week to the four month poc Support at 1.3069. Has so far held that Support.
? Dollar Index: 80.15 is the most important level on this chart and last week UDX rallied to this Resistance and has so far not broken above it.
? TLT: very strong rally last week and the chart currently prints just below 116.22, its major poc.
imo these charts do not have an obvious bias for equities. This could change soon.
