posted 9.15 a.m. est
Pre-open Monday 26th July
Last week I marked three instances of Significant Buying and one of Significant Selling. On Tuesday there was a probe of the 3month Value Area Low which met with Responsive Buying. Buyers were marked twice more Aggressively auctioning ES back to once again probe the major poc at 1094. At the fifth attempt (in ten days) ES managed to build some value above this level, on Friday. 1104.5 has been reached pre-open today.
The 1094 maj poc which has been stubborn resistance may now become support. I’m looking for consolidation above and/or intraday support from this level to confirm ST strength. If I see that then 1123 becomes target level.
Long positions are still eliminated for me because the ChartProfit Market Timing system (weekly) remained negative for the twelth consecutive week for all U.S. Market Charts (U.K. turned positive). But, a sign of improving breadth was the Nyse%Stocks>50dyma indicator which climbed above 50 for the first time since early May.
Long trades are allowed for me. The most recent imbalance being Buying (green) on Friday.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up slightly on Friday at 1.22 (from 1.14). The Rydex timers stay bearish which, from a contrarian pov, indicates that any downside would be limited at the moment. VIX however, closed at its lowest level for ten weeks.
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
– USDJPY: This chart continues to struggle.
+ EURUSD: New 10wk high last week.
? UDX: prints just above the 81.87 support. If UDX breaks below this level it is in a weak price location.
– IEF Once again on Friday IEF tested but held the support trendline from the April low. For now at least the uptrend remains intact.
imo Charts are mixed for equities.
