posted 09.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 4th February
Friday’s session generated a higher, wider value Area on increased Volume. Last week the Sellers were more active than the Buyers and yet ES still managed to Close higher than Mon-Wed Range High which is another positive Weekly Structure (last week’s Ineffective Selling was quickly negated) . The market is very overbought but both the LT and ST analysis stay positive. First sign of weakness would be “Effective” Selling and that hasn’t been marked since mid December.
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System stayed positive for all Major Market Charts. %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 90% and Nasdaq 82%. UK 89%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Dayframe: The very minor (now 23day) poc at 1497 (dashed) is the best reference level for ST Support/Resistance intraday. Pre-open ES has printed as low as 1497.75.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.51. at 4.62. Wednesday’s 4.81 was the highest reading since 28th September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Closed the week below the major poc Support at 117.15. Time below this level is weak price location. Pre-open today it prints up a little higher but still below that poc. This is a positive for equities but that could change quickly.
? Commodities: Oil USO is overbought technically but printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price holding above this level indicates further strength. Pre-open Gold GLD is printing just above the 161.0 major poc. Silver SLV is a Key Chart. It has again rallied to 31.25, its major poc, but has not exceeded it.
+ Dollar Index: Up from Friday’s weak Close but still printing below 79.80, the 2yr poc. This is a positive for equities but that could change quickly.
+ EURUSD: Chart has cleared the Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low).
imo these charts most likely have a slight positive bias for equities.
Key Charts: Watch TLT relative to 117.15 and SLV relative to 31.25.
