S&P 500 emini 11th February 2020 – pre-open

Last Wednesday’s Buying Day low was not tested on Monday, see Monday’s highlighted comments. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked again on Monday and the first sign of minor weakness would now be a day-session close below 3323(dashed line), the low of that Buying day. The minor (6wk) poc has migrated to 3324.5 which is close.

At the end of January, Support was tested and held. Since then ES has recovered with a new high reached. First sign of LT weakness would be Effective Selling marked below 3249.0, the 4mn poc.

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 48% (unch), Nasdaq 48% (unch), R2000 43% (from 42%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 25.47. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.

Bonds – TLT: The 1/2R Support off August high, is at 141.69. Recent price action indicates that a higher low above that level may be forming.
Dollar Index: is printing above 98.0, the 1/2R Resistance off Oct high, in a strong position.
Gold: GLD closed on 01/31 at its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below 11.41, the major poc in a weak position.
GBPUSD: The major poc has just migrated lower, back to 1.2933 (from 1.3128). Price below that level would be a weak position. GBPUSD currently prints very close to that level.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and broke the Support at 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Has fallen further and is now close to the October low.