S&P 500 emini pre-open 20th October

posted 09.13 a.m. est

ES: Last week I marked Significant Buying once and Significant Selling once. Wednesday and Thursday generated Value Areas entirely below the poc at 1872 but Friday’s VA was above that level. Overnight and pre-open ES has printed above 1872 and Bulls would want to see that level hold at the start of this week. There are still too many negatives for me to consider the long side. The minimum I would want to see is Effective Buying marked above 1872 and other Key Charts (DIA, XLK, XLF) in improved price locations, see eBook for levels.

ES Second Level Resistance = 1949.00
ES First Level S/R = 1872.00 (maj poc)

Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained negative for all Major Market Charts for the fourth consecutive week.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 18%, Nasdaq 24%, R2000 28%. Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.36 up from Thursday’s 5.13 which was a six month low. VIX printed above 31 last week for the first time since December 2011
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: spiked violently higher on Wednesday to a two year high followed by a sharp reaction from there. But as long as chart holds above 117.14 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location in the LT.
Dollar Index: recently printed a four year high but has corrected a little from there.
Gold GLD: earlier in the month the chart tested the Jan 2014 and June 2013 lows and is currently up off this proven chart Support. Price below these lows would likely spark another round of selling.
Oil USO: The potential Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) was broken earlier this month and chart has been sharply lower from there to its lowest level since June 2012.
EURUSD: earlier in the month printed a two year low. There is Support lower at 1.2300