pre-open comment Friday 10th August
ES gapped up a week ago and has managed to consolidate the higher prices with no Response so far from the Significant Sellers. If Sellers stay absent Buyers would be encouraged to re-enter but note the 12month VAH comes in around 1404 which may be a problem. I’ll assume higher unless Significant Selling is marked but in the longer timeframe as long as ES holds above the 5mnth poc at 1348 it is in a strong price location.
First Level Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1334.50 (1/2R off March high) SPY=134.67 (1/2R)
Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls at 36.5%, up from 30.5%. This is the highest Bulls% since w/e 6th April. The Bears were lower at 27.4%, down from 34.9% and that’s the lowest Bears% since w/e 30th March. This is the first time since early May that there has been more Bulls than Bears – public optimism rose sharply this week. This is a contrarian indicator. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.23. The ratio reached a 54 day high on 31st July but printed a 28 day low at 3.18 on Wednesday.
VIX hit a four month low on Wednesday at 15.27.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: A new two year low was printed late July but chart reached a 22dy high early this week. It is too early to call a turn here. Price printing above the minor poc at 1.2496 would be a postive. Chart printed a 5day low today.
? Dollar Index: A new two year high was printed late July. Chart printed a 22dy low early this week and a 5dy high today.
? TLT: A new high was printed late July but chart printed a 50dy yesterday.
imo the bias for equities is currently unclear.
