Pre-open Friday 10th July
Thursday generated the eighth consecutive Value Area below 2095.00, the 10mn poc. In the LT this is weak price location and I would want to see Significant Buying marked above this level before considering new longs, unless and until that poc migrates.
At the start of the week I suggested that 2045.00 as a former poc may provide Support and we have now seen three rejected tests of that level with very little time spent below that point. We can assume that this is valid Support and time printed below 2045.00 would suggest further weakness. One hour pre-open ES is printing
The minor (23dy) poc is at 2074.00 and ES has found Resistance here this week. Price acceptance above this level would bve the first positive in a while.
Bulls would also want to see Breadth numbers improve, see below. Also see Sentiment, below.
Second Level Resistance = 2095.00
First Level Resistance = 2080.25 (1/2R off May high)
First Level Support at 2045.00 (prev poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 26% (unch), Nasdaq 35% (from 32%), R2000 38% (from 37%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 8.69 which is an eight month low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: on Thursday TLT closed above 117.14, the maj poc. Price below this level would be weak location.
Dollar Index: 96.76 is the 1/2R off March high and this is the obvious Resistance which was probed on Tuesday. Today the index prints below that level.
Gold GLD: in May a probe into the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low, was rejected. GLD remains in a weak location and this week has printed close to this years low.
Oil USO: the 16mn poc recently migrated to 20.24. USO closed below that level for seven consecutive days and this week has fallen heavily. The 1/2R off the March low is at 18.55 and this is now Resistance.
EURUSD: is today printing below 1.1340, the 12mn poc.
