pre-open comment Friday 10th May
Wednesday’s green-at-top high was tested on Thursday. Thursday’s session generated a wider, outside Value Area centred around 1627 which is now the minor (8day) poc.
Dayframe: ES average Weekly Hi-Lo range is around 34 and currently Monday-Thursday Range is 25. If the range is to expand the odds would suggest higher if ES prints above 1627 during the early part of the session – see yesterday’s comments.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75% Nasdaq 62% R2000 65% Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
First Level Support = ES 1581 (30dy poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.70. Ratio reached a low of 3.22 on 4th Jan and a high of 5.22 on 13th Feb. AAII (public poll) reported Bulls% higher at 40.8% (from 31%) and Bears% down to a sixteen week low at 27.4% (from 35.9%). More in today’s webcast.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ Bonds TLT: Has turned down from 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Momentum turned negative.
? Oil USO: back below the important Resistance around 34.20. Time printed above this level would put the chart back into a strong price location. Momentum has turned positive.
? Gold GLD: Fell steeply last month to its lowest level for two years. Momentum has turned positive.
– Silver SLV: Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and last month printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum is negative but up.
– Dollar Index: Strong today and printing above 82.75, the 2month poc. Time printed above this level puts the chart back in a strong price location.
– EURUSD: Met Resistance last week at 1.3228 (1/2R off February high) and is now printing back below 1.3070, the 24mn poc.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to imply a bias for equities.
