posted 09.10 a.m. est
Both the Significant Buyers and Sellers are active but, so far at least, the Reactive Buying has been Ineffective. Pre-open yesterday there was a probe above the 1967 Resistance but this was rejected (see yesterday’s comments) and Reactive Selling (red-at-top) was marked. Buyers have Reacted twice in the price area around 1920 and it will be interesting (and likely bearish) to see if price is accepted at this level post-open today. See also Key Charts TLT and USO below.
ES Second Level Resistance = 1967.00
ES First Level Resistance = 1949.00
ES Major Support = 1872.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 15% (from 23%), Nasdaq 18% (from 27%), R2000 15% (from 25%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 7.45. The recent sell-off in the SPY has been about 4.5% but the ratio has remained above 7. The previous seven sell-offs (since start of 2013) of 4% or more have seen the ratio below 6.5. As a measure of fear this indicates Rydex retail traders have not become very fearful on this correction.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT KEY Chart: printing above 117.15 (maj poc) in a strong price location. Dollar Index: Printed a new four year high on Friday but has corrected from there.
Gold GLD: Last week the chart tested the Jan 2014 and June 2013 lows and is currently holding this proven chart Support. Therefore price below last week’s low may spark another round of selling.
Oil USO KEY Chart: The potential Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) was broken last week and is today printing its lowest level since April 2013.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month chart broke below 1.3066 (3yr poc) and last week printed a new two year low.
