Pre-open Friday 10th September
Dayframe: In this timeframe I apply my #1 Rule of “never fading the last imbalance” and although it is sometimes frustrating (see Wednesday) in the long run it pays off. As of close yesterday the most recent imbalance is now Selling (red) so Long trades are eliminated for me. On Thursday the Sellers Responded to a probe above the 1/2R 1107 level although this was Ineffective Selling because the Value area was higher and wider.
Major Support: 1094 (the MAJOR poc)
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls% at 43.9 (up from 30.8) the highest since w/e 16th April and Bears% at 31.6 (down from 42.2). The Nett is therefore 12.3, the highest since w/e 30th April (the week of the April top). This can be a volatile reading week to week and more short term than other consensus polls. This week’s numbers indicate a willingness to “express” bullishness by the not-so-smart-money, which would be confirmed if the Rydex Timers “actually” piled in to equities which they have not yet done.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up slightly from 1.25 to 1.33.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: New multi-year low this week.
+ EURUSD: Price Osc up for seven consecutive days as this chart rallies off the 1.26 support (1/2R off June low). Bulls need to see this support hold.
? UDX: Momentum is down (PriceOsc lower for seven consecutive days). If support at 81.80 (1/2R off Aug low) is broken next support is the major level at 80.15
+ TLT: currently printing back below 105.22, the major 1/2R level, and PriceOsc is heading down.
imo these charts are mixed for equities but most likely have a slightly bullish bias.
