posted 08.57 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 11th April
I marked Significant Selling twice on Thursday and the ST analysis has taking on a very negative look. Aggressive Selling auctioned ES below the 1835.50 poc and this is weak price location without an obvious and close next level Support. If ES remains below that level I will be very cautious and at current levels would not consider new longs on any timeframe. Pre-open today SPY, IWM and QQQ also print below their important poc levels. Bulls would hope that these charts quickly recover. Market Breadth and Price Momentum both deteriorated significantly yesterday and no panic from the Rydex traders.
First Level Resistance = ES 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 49% (from 67%), Nasdaq 30% (from 46%), R2000 35% (from 54%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 7.07. No panic here despite the weakness yesterday. Not usually a bullish indication in the ST. The ratio reached 8.39 on 03/13 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
– KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: found Resistance yesterday at its maj 1/2R level (22.04) and has sold off sharply.
? KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing almost at 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: recently tested and held, the 2year poc Support at 107.24 and has rallied from there.
Dollar Index: is today printing below 79.76, the maj poc Support.
Gold GLD: pre-open is printing at its 18mn poc, 127.20.
Oil USO: printing in a strong price location above 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high.
EURUSD: Last week’s low, printed on Friday, was exactly at 1.3673, the 12mn poc Support. Momentum is negative but up.
