posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 11th February
This week ES had been printing above the 8dayVAH but yesterday’s price action has raised the 8dayVAH to 1322 with the 8dayVAL 1302.5. The minor poc of any significance (17day) has also migrated higher to 1318. That could be resistance of course but ES printing above that level will likely indicate a move to the mid 1330’s.
Dayframe: Average weekly range has been around 28 points recently and this week’s range so far is 16 ponts so range extension is likely. That would mean a new high or a new low for the week today. ES printing some time above 1315.50 (minor 1/2R) early in today’s session would significantly increase the odds of the break being higher. Failing to do that would increase the odds of it being lower.
First Level S/R = 1318
Second Level Support = 1302.50
Support = 1293
LT Sentiment: No significant change in the polls or Lipper data worthy of note this week.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down from 3.56 to 3.31. This ratio is still historically high but down from 3.94 (on 01/19) which was the highest reading I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Chart has broken the 1/2R support at 1.3580.
– UDX: broken above resistance at 78.53.
+ TLT: Reference level is now 91.80 (6month poc). Chart currently weak below that level.
imo these charts are mixed but have a negative bias for equities.
