Pre-open comment Thursday 9th June
I marked Significant Buying activity on Thursday for the first in nine days. Buyers Responded (green-at-bottom) just below yesterday’s First Level S/R and the first higher VA in seven days was generated. This looked encouraging for the Bulls by the Close especially with Sentiment numbers clearly showing a large increase in Bears (contrarian Bullish) but overnight ES has drifted lower.
Dayframe: Bulls should at least look for ES to print some time above the 10day poc at 1291.50 before considering the long side; this week’s Hi-Lo Range is less than average and there is a danger of development down if Wednesday’s low is tested.
First Level S/R = 1291.50 (10dy poc)
First Level Resistance = 1314.50 (20dy poc)
LT Sentiment: AAII (public poll) %Bulls came in at 24.4% (down from 30.2) and Bears% at 47.7 (up from 33.4). That’s the lowest Bulls% and the highest Bears% since Aug 2010. The 4wkma of nett at its lowest since July 2010.
lipperusfundsflow.com – Including ETF activity, Equity funds reported net Equity outflows at -$6.5 Billion, the largest single weekly outflow since late Aug 2010, and the 4wk net outflow of -$17 Billion is the largest since early Sep 2010.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down to 2.43, a 50day low. Bull fund assets that I follow reached the lowest level since Oct 2010.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: 23day high on Wedesday. Daily momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
+ Dollar Index: 23day low on Tuesday. Daily momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
– TLT: Daily trend is up.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to determine a ST bias for equities.
