posted 8.20 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 11th March
The last five days have shown no markable imbalances but the red-at-bottom low on the 1st March has now been broken. Overnight ES has printed as low as 1283, just above the major support 1281.50 and this is well below various VAL measures including the 8dayVAL which is now at 1302. SPY QQQQ IWM have all found support (at least currently) at or just above the levels shown in this week’s webcast.
Equity charts finding support at the obvious levels. Critical to watch if these hold now. e.g. ES: Effective Selling below 1281.50 would strongly indicate further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 1298.00 (minor poc)
Maj Support 1281.50 8dayVAL = 1302
Nasdaq%Stocks>50dyma has fallen to 43% – weak below 50. Nyse holding just above 50.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex assets Ratio was down to 2.93 and there has only been one number lower this year. Reported LT sentiment numbers e.g. AAII do not show a significant enough change to comment on.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: In strong price location but may be turning down. Overbought technically, PriceOsc is negatively diverging and ticked down on Thursday.
? UDX: In weak price location but may be turning up. Oversold technically, PriceOsc is positively diverging and ticked up on Thursday.
? TLT: closed above the 6month poc at 91.80. Can it hold above?
imo these charts are showing an increasingly negative bias for equities.
