posted 9.23 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 11th May
Once again there is little comment to add. This week ES has printed three Value Areas entirely below 1366, the maj poc. This is weak price location. unless the chart recovers quickly back above that level there is the strong possibility of further weakness here. Clue may well be in the Supporting charts, see comment re the Dollar Index below.
First Level Resistance = 1366 (4month poc)
Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls sharply lower at 25.4% (down from 35.4) which is the lowest Bulls% since September last year and the Bears sharply higher at 42.1% (ffrom 28.5). This is quite an increase in Bearish sentiment and I will discuss this further in today’s webcast. It doesn’t fit what my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio is indicating which is a lack of panic. The ratio was higher again on Thursday at 4.03 (from 3.98).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: broke below 1.3069, the four month poc Support on Monday and today has printed its lowest level since January.
? Dollar Index: On Wednesday, Thursday and again today chart has attempted to overcome the major Resistance at 80.15. Currently print just above that level at 80.21.
– TLT: printed a 3month high on Wednesday at 119.57. On Thursday chart found support just above the major poc at 117.18 and has rallied back today. It is in a strong price location.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
