posted 09.02 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 12th April
Value Areas have been higher each day this week and no Significant selling has been marked. Both ST and LT analysis are positive. Dayframe: 5day poc is at 1582.50. This is a very minor level but the best we have at these levels and is potential Support/Resistance intraday.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68%, Nasdaq fell back from 59% to 57% but numbers >50 are supportive.
First Level Support = ES 1548.50 (5month poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1517.50 (min poc)
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.91 (from 4.39). The Recent high for the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22. 60day low was 3.49.
There has been an extremely large increase in pessimism in the AAII public poll this week. More details in today’s webcast.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Last week TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. This Resistance has not yet been overcome. Momentum is positive but has turned down.
– Oil USO: prints back below 34.17, the 1/2R and 3year poc. Momentum (although positive) is down. Has printed a 23day low pre-open today.
– Gold GLD: Earlier in the week chart failed a test of the 12mn poc at 152.70 and pre-open today has printed its lowest level since July 2011. Momentum negative and down.
– Silver SLV: Still in a weak price location printing below 27.87, the 12mn poc and last week printed its lowest level since last July.
+ Dollar Index: ST weak location printing below the 2month poc at 82.75. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative and down.
? EURUSD: found Support at the Major poc at 1.2777. The positive divergence between PriceOsc and Price was confirmed last week by the indicator turning up. However, chart is today printing back in a ST weaker price location below the 24mn poc at 1.3070.
imo these charts have a slight ST positive bias for equities.
