posted 9.29 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Friday 13th January
In light of the Sentiment measures pushing quickly higher recently the market may want to set back here. Pre-open ES has printed as low as 1279.75.
ES printing below 1271.50 would indicate further weakness and suggest this week’s test of the October high was a false break out. That’s all “ifs” for the moment – Significant Sellers have not been marked for fourteen days so I have to assume higher.
Dayframe: The minor poc at 1286.50 would be a level to monitor today for intraday S/R.
First Level Support = ES 1271.50 (20dy poc) SPY = 127.91
Second Level Support = ES 1256 (poc) SPY = 126.00
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down at 2.04 (from 2.64). Last Friday’s ratio at 3.0 was a five month high.
AAII reported Bulls at 49.1% the highest number since w/e 18th Feb 2011. And Bears unchanged at 17.2% which is the lowest number since 24th Dec 2010. The net (Bulls-Bears) at 31.9 is the highest for more than a year; and the 4week ma of nett.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Chart printed a new 15month low on Wednesday. Momentum is up.
– Dollar Index: Chart printed a new 15month low on Wednesday. Momentum is down.
– TLT: chart still holding the 10month poc Support at 117.88. 9dy high todayMomentum is down.
imo these charts still have a negative bias for equities but momentum indicator suggests this could change.
