posted 08.55 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 14th December
On Thursday I marked Aggressive Selling for the second day running. As you know these red-at-bottom lows have a high chance of being tested during the following session. Thursday’s Value Area was lower and wider which is Effective Selling in the dayframe (see yesterday’s comments). In the longer timeframe this week’s Selling can be called Responsive as it is above the maj poc at 1406. If Effective Selling is marked below 1406 it would have negative implications for the longer timeframe. Momentum turned down for the majority of stock indices/ETFs yesterday.
Something we have looked at before is day-to-day S/R from previous day’s poc, see dotted red lines. More in webcast.
First Level Support = 1413 (30dy poc).
Second Level Support = ES 1406 (maj poc)
Breadth. %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60% and Nasdaq 50%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Price location. Index ETFs 1/2R levels: SPY 141.40; IWM 81.55; DIA 130.45; QQQ 65.95. Pre-open all these charts are printing above their 1/2R levels except for Key chart QQQ which is printing below its 1/2R.
Key chart levels that would indicate risk-off are QQQ back below 65.95 and Dollar Index back above 80.15.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.44 which is a 16day high. Putting that in context, the recent low for the ratio at 2.57 on 11/16 was the lowest since 7th June. Other Sentiment indicators are more clearly showing Bulls emerging, more in webcast.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? EURUSD: Chart prints above the 4mn poc at 1.2964 and has today, once again, tested up into the Resistance at 1.3117 (24mn poc). Currently prints below that level.
+ Dollar Index: Chart currently printing below the 80.15 major level
+ TLT: is printing below the 125.50 (the 9mn poc).
imo these charts suggest a slight positive bias for equities.
