Pre-open comment Friday 14th January
Thursday’s session further consolidated the gain made on Wednesday with an overlapping Value Area. Still no Significant Sellers marked.
First Level Resistance = 1281.50 (8day poc).
First Level Support = 1267.50 (15day poc)
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll %Bulls was down to 52.3 and the Bears% up to 23.4 so the nett is 28.9; down from 37.6 and off the recent peak which was 46.9 w/e 12/24. However, the 4wk ma of nett reached 36.23 a new five year high.
In the Investors Intelligence (newletters) poll this week there were three times more Bulls than Bears. The last time we saw that was at the April high last year. The previous occassion to that was late December09 / early January10 just before the market sold off and the previous occassion to that was October 2007.
amgdata reported net Equity Fund Inflows of $5.6 Bil w/e 12th Jan. This lifts the 4wk flow to its highest level since October 2008.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 3.61 yesterday which is the highest I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities)
+ EURUSD: Back in a stronger price location above 1.3087, the 1/2R off the June low. Chart printed a 22day high today.
+ UDX: Currently prints back below 80.15, the major 1/2R. This is a weaker price location.
+ TLT: Closest reference level is the 2month poc at 93.04. Chart currently in weak location just below that level.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
