posted 08.25 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 14th June
On Thursday Buyers Responded early to a test of Wednesday’s low and Aggressive Buying was also marked later in the session. The Value Area was overlapping Wednesday’s so this was not Effeective Buying but new short trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling (red) is marked again. One hour pre-open ES is printing above 1628, the 55day poc, but has not printed above 1641, the 1/2R off May high and as I wrote pre-open Wednesday “sign of ST strength would be price printing time above the minor 1/2R at 1641 with the stock indices confirming relative to their 1/2R levels…At current levels I’m not interested in new long trades unless that happens.”
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57%, Nasdaq 65%, R2000 68%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
First Level Resistance = ES 1641 (minor 1/2R)
First Level Support = ES 1628 (55dy poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.00. This is a 32 day low and shows (at last) some bears emerging. Watching the ratio relative to its recent high which was 5.43 on 22nd May (May’s high day) and its recent low which was 3.27 on 25th April.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: In a weak price location below 117.15, the major poc. On Tuesday chart printed its lowest level since April 2012.
Oil USO: pre-open today chart prints above the 34.20 Resistance area. around 34.20. Momentum is up.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply in April to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again in May. Momentum just turned positive.
Silver SLV: On Tuesday printed its lowest level since Oct 2010.
Dollar Index: Has now broken the Support at the 1/2R off 2009 high at 81.10. Next Support is the major poc at 80.15. Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Yesterday printed its highest level since February and above 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. Momentum is up and positive.
