Pre-open comment Friday 15th April
Responsive Buying (green-at-bottom) was marked on Thursday. Value Area was lower and wider so this is not Effective Buying. 1312.50 remains the minor poc although it requires very little time at 1308 for the minor poc to migrate to this level.
Dayframe: The rally off Thursday’s low tested First Level Resistance at 1312.50. Overnight ES fell back to the obvious support around 1306 (minor 1/2R off the low) and has subsequently rallied back to retest First Level Resistance which is where we are pre-open. Consolidation above 1312.50 post-open would imply ST strength. ES back below 1308 would suggest Thursday’s low will be tested.
First Level Resistance = 1312.50 (minor poc)
Support between 1289.50 1/2R off February high and 1293 (poc)
LT Sentiment: Consensus polls from AAII (public) and Investors Intelligence (newsletters) showed no significant change
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down again to 2.90. Although this is a 12day low the ratio is still high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: On Wednesday printed the highest level since January 2010.
+ UDX: Thursday printed the lowest level since December 2009.
– TLT: Chart currently prints back above the 18month poc at 91.82. Consolidation here would put the chart in a much stronger price location.
imo these charts are mixed and their ST bias for equities is unclear.
