posted 9.24 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 15th June
On Thursday ES (June) generated a sixth consecutive Value Area above the 1307 poc and I marked both Responsive and Aggressive Buying. These are usually ST positives. However, the Chartprofit Market Timing system is unlikely to confirm any ST positive indications this week and the %Stocks>50dyma numbers currently remain well below the 50% mark. I would want to see those numbers above the 50 mark and 1/2R levels exceeded before assuming more strength in the longer timframe.
Dayframe: Overnight ES auctioned higher to 1339.75, just below the 1/2R Resistance at 1341 (equivalent 1/2R level for ES Sep. is 1334.50 and for SPY is 134.67). When 1/2R levels off a high are exceeded it usually implies strength and with the event risk this weekend will there be enough positive conviction in the market to overcome the Resistance?
First Level Resistance = 1341 (1/2R – June contract)
First Level S/R = 1319 (50dy poc)
Support = 1307 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 2.75. Tuesday’s ratio at 3.55 was a fifteen day high. Last week the ratio reached 2.25 which was a four month low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED VIEW
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart printing below the Major poc at 1.2777 but momentum is up.
? Dollar Index: Prints well above the important level at 80.15 but momentum is down.
? TLT: w/e 1st June the chart printed a new high but momentum is down.
daily technicals suggest the possibility of a turn here – therefore imo, in the ST, there is no obvious bias for equities
