posted 09.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 15th March
Thursday’s session gapped higher generating a higher, naorrower Value Area on less Volume. Significant Sellers are still absent. First minor sign of weakness would be Significant Selling marked below 1543, the 11day poc. First sign of weakness on the longer timeframe would be Significant Selling marked below 1517.50, the 3mn poc.
First Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 73%, Nasdaq 68%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought. We have divergence here. New highs in price but these numbers are lower than they were at the February high.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again at 3.92. Down from Tuesday’s 4.67. This data needs to watched carefully for signs of obvious over-enthusiasm. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012. VIX reached an intraday low yesterday of 11.05 which is the lowest since February 2007. Mixed in the sentiment – with some indicators definitely pushing extreme bullishness (usually a warning) but the current Rydex and Options data not confirming this. More in today’s webcast.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Weak below the 117.15 major poc. Momentum down.
? Oil USO: two weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum is up.
? Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, three weeks ago and has since printed its lowest level since July last year. Momentum (although negative) is up.
? Silver SLV: recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) is up.
– Dollar Index: Printed a 6day low today but in a strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R.
– EURUSD: Still in a weak price location below the 1.3117 poc. Today’s high is very close to this Resistance. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Unsure about the bias these charts have for equities because momentum (price oscillator) has turned on a number of charts while Bonds (TLT) remains in a weak price location.
