Pre-open comment Friday 16th September
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked again on Thursday.
The VAH of the distribution that began late July moves to 1199 (dotted).
1st Level Resistance = 1216.25 (1/2R off May high) (123.72 SPY)
1st Level Support ES (cont chart) = 1183 (45dy poc)
1st Level Support SPY = 120.00 (15dy poc)
LT Sentiment: Investors Intelligence (newsletters) Bulls% came in at 35.5, a 12month low. Bears% was 40.9, the highest since March 2009 (the major market low). This shows more Bears than Bulls and that’s the first time we’ve seen that in 12months. Lots of Bears here.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again at 1.15 (from 1.21). Bear Fund assets that I follow increased again to a new 12month high – this is a ST bullish indication (contrarian).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Has broken below Major Support at 1.4212 (maj poc) and 1.3965 (maj 1/2R).
– Dollar Index: Currently printing above the 74.96 poc and reached a six month high on Monday.
– TLT: Last week printed its highest level since Jan 2009.
imo these charts have lined up negatively for equities.
